Catching the breakouts: reading the role, not the average
- Feb 7
- 4 min read
The funny thing about “breakouts” is that by the time we’re discussing them in February, they usually stopped being surprises sometime last August.
You could see it in the way certain games felt different. A defender suddenly became the exit. A young mid stopped drifting and started demanding the ball. A forward’s quiet weeks didn’t look as quiet anymore.
So rather than chasing hype, I went back to the 2025 data and asked a narrower question. Who averaged under 100 but still found their way to 130 at least once? Because 130 in GameDay Squad scoring is not decorative. It tells you something real happened in that role.
The list isn’t shocking. The patterns are what matter.
There was a stretch late in the year where Colby McKercher simply stopped looking like a 95 average defender. Across his final ten games he ran at 118.4. Not one big spike skewing the sample. A run.
Earlier in the season he hovered around the low twenties for disposals and barely four marks a game. In the matches where he cleared 130, that picture changed entirely. Mid thirties for touches. Marks climbing towards double figures and beyond. It looked like a team deciding the safest place for the ball was in his hands.
The season average now feels slightly misleading, almost like it belongs to a different player. If you only read the 95.6, you miss where the year ended.
Jaspa Fletcher is harder to pin neatly because the defining moment is one game that refuses to be ignored.
A 163 from a defender is the sort of score that sticks in your mind. Thirty plus disposals. Seventeen marks. Brisbane’s system almost orbiting around him that day. It did not look frantic. It looked organised.
His overall average of 97.9 is already pressing against the edge. What lingers is whether that 160 type ceiling requires the entire structure to bend his way, or whether that involvement is simply part of who he has become in that backline. Brisbane’s defensive mix can evolve quickly. Sometimes a player stays central. Sometimes the ball finds a new lane.
That dynamic is part of the story.
With Harley Reid, it wasn’t one defining game so much as a gradual shift. Early in the season the 80s felt normal. By the final ten rounds he was nudging 97 a game, and when he did push beyond 130 it came with a broader stat line rather than a single spike. Disposals rising into the high twenties, tackles pushing well above his usual count, and a goal or two layered on top.
There is something reassuring about that blend. When tackles rise alongside touches, the score tends to travel a little better week to week. The jump from 82.8 to something more substantial does not look impossible. It looks conditional. More midfield responsibility probably means more of that stat mix. Probably.
Dan Curtin’s case is awkward in timing.
Late in 2025 he was averaging 94.7 across his final ten games, and twice he cracked 130. In those games his involvement almost doubled, the kind of shift that only happens when a young player is asked to be central rather than peripheral. Disposals that normally sat in the low teens suddenly reached the mid twenties and beyond.
And now he will miss the start of 2026.
That changes the conversation without changing the evidence. The numbers still show what happens when his role expands. They just do not tell us how quickly that role returns once he is back on the park. You can see the makings of a breakout... The calendar might interrupt it.
Aaron Cadman is the least tidy of the group, which is probably fitting for a key forward.
A 149 built on a heavy goal haul and double digit marks does not feel subtle. Neither do the quieter weeks in the seventies. His season average of 71.3 makes him look distant from the others here, yet his final stretch pushed into the high eighties and those two 130 plus games are sitting there in the file, tempting us in.
Key forwards do not usually smooth out into neat curves. They surge one week then go missing the next. In this format, where we can target fixtures, sometimes that is enough.
Bailey Humphrey’s ceiling felt different. His 132 in round 20 was not just about goals. His tackle count doubled that day. That matters more than it sounds. Tackles anchor a forward’s scoring in a way pure scoreboard reliance never quite does. Forward pressure sets the floor, goals bring the ceiling.
If his midfield time creeps up even slightly, that pressure base might rise with it. It does not need to transform overnight. A small tilt in role can change the feel of an entire season.
None of these names are being discovered here. We have already talked about them. The difference is that the 2025 numbers show the same thing our instincts do. In different ways, each of them has already accessed a level beyond their average.
Some, like McKercher, look as though the average is simply catching up to where they finished. Others feel more dependent on circumstance. Curtin’s timeline is uncertain. Cadman’s volatility remains. Fletcher’s ceiling sits inside Brisbane’s structure, which may or may not look identical next year.
The breakout label makes it sound dramatic. Most of the time it is quieter than that. It is just a gradual shift that you notice before the averages fully adjust, and then one day the numbers look different and it no longer feels like a leap at all.
This blog isn't so much about highlighting these young players, that's been done enough. It's about giving you the tools to catch the big future jumps early, and sometimes a week or two is all it takes for that top 10 finish or to save $50 on the transfer market (sorry Danny).
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