Re-Framing our GDS AFL Thinking

M1. D4. F5. R2. "Top 5 Mid". "Lock for a Top 6 Forward" "Borderline D7" "Clear R1" 

Those who have played AFL fantasy formats for a while will know exactly what the above means. However it's time to unwire our brains. We've been subconsciously trained to spit out these terms on auto-pilot when discussing AFL players and their relative standing. 

Let me fill you in on a little secret though. Not only is this language almost irrelevant in GameDay Squad, but it also can be counter productive. In GameDay Squad, we don't get rewarded for predicting the top 8 midfielders for the year. Yes it's important we look at season long predictions and can identify players that are going to be in the upper echelons of each position, but we get rewarded (or burnt) by selecting the highest scorers each week.

Anyone could have predicted that Nick Daicos was a top 7 midfielder last year on season average, but the coaches who were most successful were the ones who successfully faded Daicos when heavily tagged in Rounds 4, 9 & 13.

Marcus Windhager shutting down Nick Daicos in a hard tag.

On any given week there are a number of factors that affect our selections: form, role, injury, match-up, history, weather, 5 day breaks, venue, tag risk and sometimes a bit of gut feel.  Which is why it's time we re-frame our thinking when it comes to players. M1 might be a relevant term for any individual week, but in terms of looking at players over the course of the season it's time to introduce a new concept: The Percentage Play 

When assessing the value of cards in your collection, ask yourself - how often will I use this card this season? 

We'll get to a Top 10 a bit later on, but I'm going to call it early in the least spicy call of all time - Harry Sheezel is the highest percentage play this year. With his forward status and scoring power he is as close to a 100% play as we're likely to ever get. With the depth of forwards looking quite weak, even Sheezel's lower scoring games are likely to be enough to be a Top 7 forward each week.

Things can change quickly and we do need to adapt, but I'm struggling to see a world where anyone is considering not playing Harry Sheezel every single round of the season - making him as close to a 100% card that we'll ever see.  So who else makes the Top 10? Let's have a look. 

The Percentage Play Top 10

1. Harry Sheezel - 99% card 

See above, there's not much more to be said.

2. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 97% card

Nas continues to explode both as a defender and a midfielder, whilst it is expected that opposition attention will continue to come his way, he proved last year his flexibility is his greatest strength and makes him the safest pick each week in your backline. 

3. Gryan Miers - 95% card

Gryan Miers! A name you probably weren't expecting this high, but he enters the year as the 2nd highest averaging forward and has trained as a midfielder throughout the pre-season. Whilst Miers might not have the ceiling of a couple of forwards on this list, his consistency is what we're looking for. Like all players he's prone to an off day, but we're projecting him to be sitting in a lot of forward lines every week throughout the year.

4. Connor Rozee - 92.5% card

Rozee's defender status gives him the leg up in making him a safe selection each week. His scoring ability has been elevated by the cheap possessions on offer in the back half, and with his teammate Zak Butters getting all the tag attention he'll be a popular selection in every backline. 

5. Bailey Smith - 90% card

Our first midfielder on the list comes in the form of last year's highest averaging player. Baz averaged 10 points higher than the next best midfielder and while his late outs might have burnt you in other formats, that's irrelevant in GDS. The beauty with Smith is his running ability and poor ball use has seen him avoid all defensive tags, with Clubs preferring to lock onto teammate Max Holmes. An extra midfielder spot in GDS this year helps cement his standing even further. 

6. Christian Petracca - 87% card

Brand Trac has moved up to the Gold Coast and we've been gifted with forward status. The question mark will be on his role this year joining a team already stacked with talent, however it should also be worth mentioning that last year was his first year back off a long injury layoff and he had a remarkable scoring floor. We don't expect him to challenge Sheezel, Flanders & Sam Darcy for ceiling scores, but he's not going to be a player that burns you. 

7. Sam Flanders - 85% card

Up next the enigma that is Sam Flanders. The days of the dream half back role are gone, but the natural ball winner will be expected to play more as a midfielder with the Saints which will surely see a large spike on his 2025 average of 78.3. We're expecting Flanders to hit the ground running early and could easily be the highest scoring forward each week, but over time will Ross Lyon come to the same realisation that Stewart Dew and Damien Hardwick both did that he's not good enough to be a midfielder? 

8. Errol Gulden - 82.5% card

Errol was down on his lofty standards in 2025 which can be somewhat excused to missing the first half of the season through injury. We're predicting a bounce back though aided by the AFL's rule changes to make the game more transitional. Oh and by the way, which Swans player can you picture sprinting to the boundary line to receive the free kick for the new last touch rule? Like Bailey Smith, Errol's running ability is hard to tag, but he can be slowed down at times - he's a lock more than a fade though. 

9. Nick Daicos - 80% card

Just behind Errol is the Collingwood champ. As talked about before there's no doubting his ceiling or where he will sit on the overall end of season rankings, we do know by now though that he can ruin your weekend when he is tagged. Identifying these weeks are critical and can often be the difference 20-30 ranking spots weekly.  However! A new addition to GDS in 2026 is the introduction of an emergency system where your lowest score will drop off each week. In a perfect world you'll have your lowest scoring forward drop off because you've nailed all your other picks, but does this safety net allow you to play Daicos every week now? Food for thought...

10. Kysiah Pickett - 75% card

This may appear like a hot take on face value... it's really not. Kozzie enters the year with the 3rd highest forward average in a year where the forward depth looks weak (last time I say it, I promise). With Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca moving on, one can only expect even more midfield opportunities for Pickett - particularly in a Melbourne team that is going to need its best players up around the ball. We’re predicting 2026 to be a more predictable year for Kozzie… 

Stiff to Miss: Lachie Whitfield, Jordan Dawson, Marcus Bontempelli

Some Final Observations: 

- As you would have seen in this exercise it's not the ceiling we're looking for, it's the consistency of being a Top 7 defender/forward or a Top a midfielder on a weekly basis. This is what pays the bills in GDS.

- We only get to choose two rucks a week and the uncertainty around the new ruck rules and flow-on effects has us too nervous to make any calls. There's always been high variability with rucks due to lots of good options along with match up data and we expect this to continue. This system might not be for them.

- Last year a player like Sam Darcy we would have suggested was a 25% card, you simply had to play him in match ups against Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne. This year that percentage might have doubled (or tripled?)

- If you have the time, it's always a good exercise to look at round by round fixtures and start planning out potential line ups, this will help you come up with your own percentages for the cards you own

- Consider this line of thinking when making decisions on the market via trades or purchasing. Do I want to invest in a card I might only play 60% of the time? In bye weeks or in the new primetime competition what cards am I going to need? Can I afford not to have a Sam Darcy diamond for when they play West Coast?

Let us know your thoughts on this concept!